“Can Lake Turkana Be Saved?” by Lori Pottinger

Sean Avery is a man on a mission. The Kenya-based hydrologist and civil engineer is the leading authority on the hydrological workings of Lake Turkana, the world’s largest desert lake, and he’s extremely worried about its future.

The cause for his concern is a boom in river-crippling projects being built upstream in Ethiopia, on a river that is the primary water source for the lake. The huge Gibe III Dam and related irrigation developments now under construction in the Lower Omo Valley will regulate and divert large quantities of the lake’s inflow into the lake, which could dry up a good portion of this ancient water body and forever change its ecological balance, its thriving fisheries, and the landscape around it. For hundreds of thousands of people who call the lake environment home, these changes could bring a slow death of their livelihoods and communities.

It is hard to believe that the planet could lose another of its big lakes from human hubris, but Lake Turkana is indeed set to become the next Lake Chad or Aral Sea, both of which lie near death from ill-conceived water diversions and dams. If the world allows Lake Turkana to become “Turkana Pond,” we will lose a startling emerald jewel of a lake in a vast desert; rich biodiversity that borders on the prehistoric, and unique communities and cultures that reflect back on this distinctive place.

Dr. Avery, who’s been visiting Lake Turkana for more than three decades, has spent the past few years steadily documenting how these upstream developments could lead to its ecocide. His latest report, “What Future for Lake Turkana“, recently published by Oxford University’s African Studies Centre, is a clear-eyed, unyielding, scientifically grounded cry for help.

The irrigation schemes are the wild card. If the government’s grandiose plans come to fruition, the lake will certainly die. Avery notes that just one of the irrigated plantations being implemented in the Lower Omo is almost equal to the entire current irrigated area of Kenya, stating: “Irrigation development on this scale will require a huge rate of water abstraction from the Omo… up to 50 percent of the lake’s inflow could be abstracted for irrigation alone.” He calculates that such abstractions will drop the 30-meter-deep lake’s level by 20 meters.

The state-run Ethiopian Sugar Corporation intends to develop 150,000 hectares of irrigated sugar plantations in the Lower Omo. Thousands of agro-pastoralist people are being pushed off their lands and into government villages for these developments, and being told to learn how to become sedentary “modern” farmers. Vast tracts of land have also been taken from existing protected areas. Other lands have been allocated to private investors. The Omo Valley has become the site not just of Ethiopia’s largest water grab, but also a vast land grab, where well-connected Ethiopians and international investors are making moves to develop big plantations, mostly for export crops and sugar, while human rights abuses of local people escalate.

Because the consequences of these profligate irrigation abstractions were not mentioned in any of the environmental impact assessments commissioned by the dam builders, Dr. Avery began assessing them in a detailed 2010 report for the African Development Bank. Next he wrote a lengthy and detailed update to this, having gotten new, more shocking information about the extent of irrigation planned for the Lower Omo. Like many strong but “technical” scientific reports, his past reports have not had a wide audience. His new report is targeted for the rest of us: written for non-scientists, shorter, graphically beautiful. It’s time for the rest of us to pay attention.

Where to from here?
Sean Avery is not alone in his effort to try to turn this story around. Many academics and activists have been warning of the dire consequences these projects will cause if they continue as planned. A recent article in the Kenyan newspaper The Star quotes veteran archaeologist Dr. Richard Leakey on the risks: “This is a global disaster in waiting. Lake Turkana is going to dry up.” Friends of Lake Turkana, a Kenyan NGO, has been campaigning for many years to register local peoples’ concerns and stir political action from Kenya. Human Rights Watch, Oakland InstituteSurvival International and my own organization are just a few that have been working to raise awareness on the situation in recent years. UNEP recently launched an effort to bring the two governments together to discuss how to share this important river.

All of these efforts would be nearly impossible without the careful work of the Dr. Averys of the world.

As we reach the knife’s edge of decision-making on developments in the Omo, there is still time for Ethiopia to make changes that could save Lake Turkana.

A first step would be to undertake integrated water-resources management planning for the Lower Omo. This would establish the water needs of all stakeholders in the basin (including ecosystems), analyze the carrying capacity of the river in regards to future dams and plantations, and change development plans to meet these needs. Given the likelihood that Gibe III will be completed (it is about 75 percent complete now), the process could also review the potential for environmental flows — a system for managing the quantity and timing of water flows below a dam to sustain ecosystems and human livelihoods that depend on them.

Such an ambitious basin-management process would require unprecedented cooperation and openness for these two governments. Yet the stakes are so high, the evidence so clear, that it’s hard to imagine the impasse will continue, and the blinders will stay on. We’ll be watching and waiting from the sidelines, with every hope that Dr. Avery won’t, in the end, need to say “I told you so” about Lake Turkana. 


Follow Lori Pottinger on Twitter: www.twitter.com/loripottinger_r

Omo Valley Communities to Suffer the Repercussions of Gibe III Dam

When governments come up with huge projects that are geared towards solving the economic struggles of a vast majority, what naturally follows is celebration among the citizens. After all it is the job of every government to better the lives of its populace both economically and socially. However, when the Ethiopian government came up with the grand plan of building the biggest dam in Sub Saharan Africa, there was not much to smile about. Not for Ethiopia’s local poor.

In July 2006, The Ethiopian government signed a contract with an Italian construction company, Salini Construttori to build the controversy laden Gibe III dam. This was the beginning of many worries for those who live along the Omo Delta and further down to the Kenyan communities who are largely dependent on Lake Turkana.

But what do Lake Turkana, Gibe III dam and the Omo Valley tribes have to do with each other, you might ask? They are all dependent on the Omo River in one way or another. Gibe III dam will block the south western part of the Omo River and put an end to its natural flood cycle. The Omo River floods every year in August or September. The Grand project geared towards generating huge amounts of electricity, poses a great threat to the livelihoods of these people and the natural resources they depend on.

Fast forward to over a half a dozen years later, and the construction is over 70% complete. All amidst the cries and constant resistance against the project by: Ethiopian, Kenyan and international bodies.

Projects such as the Gibe III dam are seen to rarely benefit the communities that live around the areas where they are located. Instead the huge amount of electricity produced is used for commercial purposes such as: export to neighbouring countries and supplied to big companies like factories that require a lot of electricity to be in operation.

The case in Ethiopia is no different from other Mega dam projects in different parts of the world. Aside from diverting the waters of the mighty Omo River, Gibe III will not only halt its annual flooding pattern but will later be used to irrigate large plantations leased to foreign companies for export and sugarcane plantations that are going to be run by the government.

The annual flooding pattern of the Omo River is very important to the Southern communities of Ethiopia. They depend on it for planting foods like maize and sorghum which go a long way in sustaining the population. They have devised sophisticated ecological practices that involve alternating between, pastoralism, fishing and cultivation. When the river floods, a bonus is fertile silt deposits that nurture the plants with the nutrients they need to grow. The six Omo Valley communities are: Daasanach, Kwegu, Kara, Bodi, Mursi and Nyangatom. Fishing which is one of their alternative sources of food is now under threat as the fish stocks are in danger of dipping to an all time low.

To add insult to injury, there have been incidents reported of forced and sometimes violent evictions of people from the land to be later used for large scale plantations by the Ethiopian government. These allegations have been met with a lot of resistance and denial. Unfortunately, this is just one of the elements of the bleak picture painted for those who are likely to be affected by the Gibe III dam project.

The continued construction of the dam has got hundreds of thousands of people both in Kenya and Ethiopia fearing for their lives, with the possibility of their lifeblood being snatched away. The government of Ethiopia however, insists that the ongoing project will have minimal impact on the environment and that the vast tracts of land to be used for sugarcane and cotton plantations are scarcely populated.

What remains a mystery is whether the government will ever back down from the pressure that is coming from local and international bodies. The key recommendations that have been given are, that an Environmental Impact Analysis is done and the people, ecology and biodiversity of the area and those outside of the country connected to it, be given serious consideration in the bid for economic development.

Turkana Killed by Merille Militia over Natural Resource Conflict

The Merille militia are suspected to have kidnapped and killed an estimated 11 Turkana men in less than two weeks. It all started with 4 fishermen who were kidnapped on the 1st of August and their bodies later dumped in the lake. These fishermen doubling up as reservists, were allegedly fishing on the Todonyang’ border point when the incident occured. These attacks have been linked to competition for natural resources,specifically fishing areas that the respective tribes are dependent on.

For the past two years residents of the Todonyang’ area near the Kenya-Ethiopia border have been forced to find refuge elsewhere in a bid to avoid the constant attacks. With ongoing projects such as the Gibe III dam and the planned irrigation projects to follow threatening the very existence of the lake, it begs the question. How much is the government doing to protect its citizens and the resources they are dependent on?

Recent reports have brought attention to the fact that a number of GSU officers have been sent to protect the border points. Marines have also been deployed in the area, according to a statement by the Turkana North DC,Eric Wanyonyi.

The Turkana and Merille tribes reside on their respective sides of the borders and share Lake Turkana,as a common source of food and water. However, the attacks are being made on Kenyan property. Lake Turkana,aside from being the World’s largest dessert lake, is also home to nutritious and abundant fish stocks.

Additionally, three deltas around the Lake,which are considered Kenyan territory, have been occupied by armed raiders in a case similar to the Migingo islands. The Kenyan fishermen have been displaced as a result. The waters around these deltas are key breeding sites for fish giving the Merille militiamen an upper hand at access to the fish. The Kenyan government is making efforts to reoccupy the land according to Erick Wanyonyi.

This is just the beginning of what the two governments will be dealing with in the coming years, considering the many threats to both the natural resources and the functions that they play for the people. The killings are a very sensitive issue that needs to be handled with urgency and tact from both the Kenyan and Ethiopian governments.
It is not only a competition for resources but major issues like security and coexistence are affected. If it is not handled with the utmost care, the repercussions could be severe to say the least. In many countries around the world,natural resources go beyond the border points of states and sometimes the lines are blurred but solutions are found to suit both parties and encourage peaceful and mutually beneficial coexistence.

The Ethiopian government,through the Omorate DO Chumere Yerar promised to be committed to addressing the conflict between the Turkana and Merille along the common borders. The Ethiopian authorities stated that they found the boat stolen by the militia. The militia are yet to be captured by the authorities and more effort needs to be put in this cause so as to make an example of the perpetrators and discourage further incidents of this nature.

The Kenyan government,on its part should take this very seriously as a security threat and apply the necessary measures to protect its countrymen. There has been very little security in the area in light of the fact that this is not the first time the Turkana are being killed by a community from accross the border. Security is a vital step in the conservation and proper equitable use of natural resources that transcend physical borders.

Efforts aimed at communication between the two countries through both the elders and other authoritative figures are said to be underway. The relationship between Kenya and Ethiopia is under strain as a result of the killings and solutions should be found sooner than later, in ensuring peaceful coexistence between the two communities in conflict.

Kenya to hold talks with Ethiopia over Gibe III Dam

Kenyan government finally recognizes that Lake Turkana is in danger of disappearing due to the reduction in inflow of the Omo River as a result of the Gibe III dam construction and irrigation projects in Ethiopia. Cabinet secretary in the ministry of Sports, Arts and Culture, Dr. Hassan Wario, stated categorically that they plan to hold talks with the Ethiopian government.

The talks will be aimed at averting any harmful impact on the lake by ensuring that the water from the dam is allowed to flow back into the Omo River, hence continue to supply water to Lake Turkana, instead of diverting the water to irrigation schemes in Ethiopia.

The ongoing dam construction and impending irrigation projects are predicted to reduce the water levels of Lake Turkana by 33 feet. This places the heritage site in danger of being put on the endangered list. It could also compromise the Lake’s status as a world heritage site.

Silting is likely to occur leading to the depletion of fish stocks, which will affect the livelihood of those dependent on the Lake for food. The Lake supports 48 species of fish.

The Jade Sea, as it was known for several years, has great significance for its contribution to the evolution theory. With the discovery of the Turkana boy, it was placed on the map and is a key site for those interested in the origin of mankind.

The efforts made by Friends of Lake Turkana are finally beginning to bear fruit. The recognition of the danger faced by the lake, albeit, 5 years later, is a step in the right direction for the Kenyan government. We can only hope that the talks prove fruitful and that the two governments, having sustained a long standing friendship since independence, can come to a suitable agreement that preserves the interest and rights of both Kenyan and Ethiopian citizens.

Ethiopia Refuses to Cooperate With World-Bank-Funding Probe

On 28 May 2013, William Davison published an article on Bloomberg pointing to Ethiopia’s government’s refusal to cooperate in a probe that seeks to establish whether the World Bank flouted it’s own policies by funding a plantation project that will result in forced resettlement of some 45,000 households in the country’s southwestern Gambella region. The report reads, in part, as follows:
Ethiopia, Africa’s most-populous nation after Nigeria, has made 3.3 million hectares (8.2 million acres) of land available to agriculture companies. Photographer: Jenny Vaughan/AFP/Getty Images
Ethiopia’s government said it won’t cooperate with a probe into whether the World Bank violated its own policies by funding a program in which thousands of people were allegedly relocated to make way for agriculture investors.
Ethnic Anuak people in Ethiopia’s southwestern Gambella region and rights groups including Human Rights Watch last year accused the Washington-based lender of funding a program overseen by soldiers to forcibly resettle 45,000 households. The Inspection Panel of the World Bank, an independent complaints mechanism, began an investigation in October into the allegations, which donors and the government have denied.
“We are not going to cooperate with the Inspection Panel,” Getachew Reda, a spokesman for Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, said in a phone interview on May 22. “To an extent that there’s a need for cooperation, it’s not going to be with the Inspection Panel, but with the World Bank”
Ethiopia, Africa’s most-populous nation after Nigeria, has made 3.3 million hectares (8.2 million acres) of land available to agriculture companies. Investors include Karuturi Global Ltd. (KARG) of India, the world’s largest rose grower, and companies owned by Saudi billionaire Mohamed al-Amoudi.
There is a “plausible link” between the Promoting Basic Services program, partly funded by the bank to pay the salaries of local government workers, and a resettlement process also known as villagization in Gambella, the panel said in a Nov. 19 report obtained by Bloomberg News. The World Bank confirmed the authenticity of the report…


Chinese loans could fuel regional conflict in East Africa

Dam and irrigation projects could spark “bloody and persistent” conflict, suggests Peter Bosshard of International Rivers.

a tribal man from Ethiopia's Lower Omo River Basin. (Image by Alison M. Jones for www.nowater-nolife.org)China has made great efforts to support poverty reduction in Africa, and likes to present itself as a friend of the African people. But loans for contentious dam and irrigation projects now threaten to pull China into an explosive regional conflict between well-armed groups in Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan.

The Lower Omo Valley in south-west Ethiopia and Lake Turkana in Northern Kenya are marked by a harsh climate and unique, fragile ecosystems. They are home to 12 indigenous peoples, one of the largest remaining wildlife migrations, and some of the earliest remains of the human species.

The region is currently being transformed by one of Africa’s biggest and most controversial infrastructure ventures. Once completed, the Gibe III hydropower project will dam the Omo River to generate electricity with a capacity of 1,870 megawatts. It will also allow the irrigation of 2,450 square kilometres of sugar plantations, which are currently being developed on indigenous lands and in national parks.

Scientific report documents looming environmental disaster

The dam and irrigation projects have been debated for many years. Reports commissioned and prepared by the African Development Bank, International Rivers, the World Heritage Committee and the Ethiopian Wildlife Conservation Authority have documented their impacts on the fragile ecosystems of the Lower Omo River and Lake Turkana, the 500,000 indigenous people who depend on them, and the unique cultural heritage of this cradle of humankind.

A new scientific study published by the NGO International Rivers explores the social and environmental impacts of the project in detail, and examines the knock-on effects of the impending ecological crisis on the security of the volatile border region of Ethiopia, Kenya and South Sudan. The study confirms that Lake Turkana, the world’s largest desert lake, almost completely depends on the inflows from the Omo River, and that the lake’s unique ecosystems and fisheries are closely linked to the river’s annual flood cycle.

The dam and sugar plantations will affect this ecosystem in several ways. The dam will interrupt the annual flood of the Omo River, which sustains the agriculture, grazing lands and fisheries of the region. The filling of the Gibe III reservoir will lower the water level of Lake Turkana by two metres. The sugar plantations will divert at least 28% of the Omo River’s annual flow, and lower the lake’s water level by at least 13 metres. Read more…

Ethiopian Dam and Irrigation Projects Threaten to Turn Kenya’s Lake Turkana into “East Africa’s Aral Sea”

New paper documents impending threat to regional peace and security in volatile Horn of Africa

Photo: Jane Baldwin via International Rivers

A new report documents how a dam and series of irrigation projects being built in Ethiopia threaten the world’s largest desert lake, and the hundreds of thousands of people who depend on it. It describes how hydrological changes from the Gibe III Dam and irrigation projects now under construction in the Omo River Basin could turn Lake Turkana in Kenya into East Africa’s Aral Sea (the infamous Central Asia lake that almost disappeared after the diversion of rivers that fed it).

The environmental impacts, which include a huge drop in the lake’s level, could lead to a collapse of local livelihoods, and foment insecurity in the already conflict-ridden Horn of Africa.

Lake Turkana gets 90% of its water from the Omo River. Filling the dam’s reservoir will significantly reduce the lake’s inflow for a number of years. The further impact of water diversions for large irrigated plantations being developed in the Lower Omo could lead to the lake level dropping by as much as 22 meters (the average depth is just 30 meters), the paper reports. The dam will also reduce the flow of sediments, which will “lead to the loss of the ecologically productive floodplain used by wild species, fish, domestic stock and agriculture,” according to the report.

The report’s author states that the impacts to regional peace and security are likely to be severe, and could have global consequences: “The disruptions to the lands, waters, ecology and livelihoods of the peoples in this region will have immediate and substantial political consequences. Local groups displaced from their livelihoods and homelands are likely to seek out resources on the neighbors’ lands in the Kenya-Ethiopia-Sudan borderlands … Well armed, primed by past grudges, and often divided by support from different state and local governments, these conflicts can be expected to be bloody and persistent.”

International Rivers and Friends of Lake Turkana are calling for a halt to construction until there is a complete accounting of how the dam and irrigation projects will harm Lake Turkana, and a plan to ensure the lake does not suffer a hydrological collapse.

Gibe III Dam is about half complete, and construction on the sugar plantations is just starting. Hydrologists are calling for a plan to ensure adequate river flows to support Lake Turkana (called “environmental flows”). Jackie King, professor emeritus of the Institute of Water Studies at the University of Western Cape, says: “It is not yet too late to complete a transboundary environmental flow assessment that will allow both countries to see the costs and benefits of a number of options for designing and operating this dam (including a no dam option). The two countries could then negotiate a future development pathway based on these options that both could accept. It would have to be done very soon, before the dam is completed.”

The report describes political interventions that could change this tragedy in the making. For example, China could withdraw from the project to avoid driving a wedge between Kenya and Ethiopia. In July 2010, China’s largest bank, ICBC, approved a loan of $500 million for Dongfang Electric Machinery Corp., a Chinese state-owned company, which intends to provide equipment for the Gibe III project. China Development Bank has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopia Sugar Corporation for a loan of $500 million to finance two sugar factories in the South Omo region. The two Chinese banks are the only international financiers for the dam and sugar projects, which have stirred international condemnation.

Despite the impacts to its own people and the lake, Kenya has agreed to purchase power from the dam, and the World Bank and African Development Bank have both agreed to fund the transmission line that will bring the dam’s electricity to Kenya.

Ikal Angelei, founder of Friends of Lake Turkana and a 2012 recipient of the Goldman Environmental Prize, said: “We are calling on the government of Kenya to respect the rights of its people and halt its involvement in power purchases from Gibe III Dam. We call on the bilateral agencies to recognize the destruction that the dam and large plantations will bring on Lake Turkana, and withdraw budget support for Ethiopia that will underwrite destructive infrastructure.”

Although not directly involved in funding these destructive projects, Western governments do support Ethiopia with aid (it is estimated to accounts for at least half of government spending).

Lori Pottinger, Africa campaigner for International Rivers, says: “Ethiopia could not have built the Gibe III Dam without the budget support it receives from Western governments and the World Bank. These donors have a responsibility to intervene, and help stop the unfolding disaster in the Omo river basin.”

There are many “wild cards” in this saga (including the problem of climate change), but one thing is certain, says the author: “The destruction of Turkana, if it proceeds, will become as notorious as that of the Aral Sea, tainting all those who perpetuate it.”

Learn more about ICBC’s role in Gibe III


Download Downstream Impacts of Gibe III Dam: East Africa’s “Aral Sea” in the Making?

The report’s author, a natural scientist with many years of field experience in the region, has requested anonymity.

Selected Excerpts:

If Ethiopia completes the Gibe III Dam and continues to press ahead with large-scale irrigation developments, the result will be a cascade of hydrological, ecological and socio-economic impacts that will generate a region-wide crisis for indigenous livelihoods and biodiversity and thoroughly destabilize the Ethiopia-Kenyan borderlands around Lake Turkana. The long-term effect could parallel what has happened to Central Asia’s Aral Sea, one of the planet’s worst environmental disasters. This African crisis is fast becoming an issue that will increasingly engage the international community.

Dam construction will dramatically change the annual flood cycle to the detriment of the lake as well as the Omo floodplain. About two-thirds of the annual flood cycle, and some proportion of the nutrients and sediment, would be curtailed during reservoir filling. After filling, the naturally shaped flood hydrograph will be reshaped into wildly fluctuating hydropower releases on a daily basis that will cause the downstream river to rise and fall each day by a few meters. The substantial reduction of the flood cycle will permanently transform and could ultimately devastate the primary productivity of the lake and its fish, bird, crocodile, lakeshore and other species.

If dam construction is accompanied by large-scale irrigated plantations, the result for Lake Turkana will be a far more significant drop in water level. The 150,000 ha Kuraz Sugar plantations would alone require 28.2% of the Omo River’s flow – and that is if the scheme achieves 70% water use efficiency, a level highly unlikely in what is a massive, under-capitalized and rapidly implemented effort. More realistic assessments of water use efficiency in these irrigation projects suggest that the lake would reduce to a mere 42% of its current volume and decline 22m in depth (note that the average depth of the lake is 30m). Needless to say, a cycle of dry years and/or impacts of global climate change could severely exacerbate this tragic effect.

The cumulative impact of these developments on the ecosystems and societies of the Lower Omo and Lake Turkana will be severe in the short and medium terms, and potentially catastrophic in the longer term. … The disruptions to the lands, waters, ecology and livelihoods of the peoples in this region will have immediate and substantial political consequences. Starting at local levels, these will in turn end up having regional consequences that will ultimately be of global importance, given the wider situation in the Horn of Africa.

Local groups displaced from their livelihoods and homelands are likely to seek out resources on the neighbors’ lands in the Kenya-Ethiopia-Sudan borderlands. Based on the recent history of conflict among local communities in this region, they are expected to react largely through raids and warfare. Well armed, primed by past grudges, and often divided by support from different state and local governments, these conflicts can be expected to be bloody and persistent. In fact they are already underway.

In Ethiopia, the destruction of agro-pastoral and fishing livelihoods in the Lower Omo and the coercion necessary to appropriate their lands for plantation agriculture will severely disrupt the lives of an estimated 200,000-300,000 people of a dozen ethnic groups. Effects of similar scale in terms of population size and regional import will happen on the Kenya side of the border, except that here the environmental damage to the lake will impact several dimensions of the broader economy. Nothing will replace current ways of life around the Lake, and because of the loss of access by livestock for watering and grazing the consequences will be felt far inland in this nomadic region.

To enable implementation of its agricultural scheme, Ethiopia has begun resettling 1.5 million people in four regions, despite the disastrous consequences of similar efforts under previous regimes. Reports by human rights groups have documented an absence of consultation and growing resistance on the part of indigenous Omo peoples.

The impoverishment of the wetland and lake ecosystems of Turkana, the Delta and Lower Omo will lead to unpredictable changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services. Especially of concern locally will be the damage to the fisheries. Internationally there will be concern about the loss of much of the world’s largest wild Nile Crocodile population, and the damage to an important staging area for the bird migration routes through the Great Rift Valley between Africa and Eurasia.

Under proposed dam and agricultural development schemes, the Lower Omo will lose most of its large mammal populations as they will lose habitat (including, under current plans, a significant proportion of the existing National Parks), as well as the ability to follow historic migration corridors through plantation land. Furthermore, they will lose most of their food supplies in their remaining areas since these are created by the seasonal floods.

Sixteen prominent academics and experts have endorsed the paper’s findings. Here is what some of them have to say about it:


  • Dr. William Oweke Ojwang, assistant director of the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute: “The Omo–Lake Turkana ecosystem is a gift to our heritage. Lake Turkana fisheries have immense socio-economic importance to the country and the region. It would be suicidal for Kenya to ignore the impacts of these developments on this rich ecosystem.”
  • David Turton, a forced-migration expert with the University of Oxford with 40 years’ experience studying the people of the Omo Valley: “This is the most effective statement I’ve yet seen of the full extent of the disaster looming in the basin.”
  • Alex Awiti, an ecosystems ecologist at Aga Khan University in Nairobi: “This paper offers dispassionate evidence against wrongheaded investments that discount and undermine the ecological basis for sustainable development. I hope its findings will rouse a global conscience to address the fate of the Turkana basin.”
  • David Hales, President of Second Nature and former Chair, UNESCO World Heritage Committee: “This paper raises fundamental issues that must be addressed urgently. It is time for the international community to pay serious attention to the impact on indigenous people in both Ethiopia and Kenya, and the potential loss of irreplaceable components of natural systems whose richness and uniqueness have been recognized as part of the common heritage of mankind through the World Heritage Convention.”

This press release was issued by Lori Pottinger of International Rivers.


New Study Reveals Likely Full Impact of Gibe 3 and Irrigation on Lake Turkana & Omo River

manyattaA new study conducted by Dr Sean Avery and released by the African Study Centre reveals a much grimmer picture of the impact of the building of Gibe III Dam on the Omo River and associated large scale irrigation-dependent plantations in Ethiopia would have on the Lake Turkana and Lower Omo Basins. The report shows how Gibe’s regulation of the flow of the Omo will alter the annual flood regime upon which the agro-pastoralists of the lower Omo depend for their livelihoods and how it will, coupled with the abstraction of Omo water for large-scale irrigation will alter the hydrological inflow patterns to Lake Turkana, directly impacting the ecology of the world’s largest lake.

This is the second comprehensive study of the impact of Gibe on the hydrology of Lake Turkana and Lover Omo that the Nairobi-based consultant hydrologist and civil engineer, Dr Sean Avery, has conducted. Dr Avery previously carried out the only comprehensive assessment of the impact of the dam on Lake Turkana and Lower Omo – commissioned by the African Development Bank (AfDB) – but that was before the full scale of planned irrigation-dependent large scale plantation development was known. 

A few months after the AFDB report was submitted, the full extent of planned irrigation development in the lower Omo became clearer, with the announcement that the state-run Ethiopian Sugar Corporation would soon begin developing 150,000 hectares of irrigated sugar plantations. It became necessary to conduct a new study to consolidate the previous findings with the new information.

Dr Avery’s new report is now available to download from the website of the University of Oxford’s African Studies Centre. We have placed the links to the two volume report and an executive summary here. You can also read Dr Avery’s first report in the Documents Downloads section of our website.

Download Documents


The River Omo and Lake Turkana Hydrology: Executive Summary and Introduction

The River Omo and Lake Turkana Hydrology: Volume I

The River Omo and Lake Turkana Hydrology: Volume II

Climate Change COP18, Doha: Common Accounting Mechanism and the Status Quo Games

The Climate Change debate will be clossing in two days and African youth representatives have been following the proceedings. They have been sending out regular updates and we at FoLT, who have been agitating for protection of Lake Turkana and the people of Lake against the vagaries of climate change, will share these updates here. Here is our first update.

Us against them?

It just hit 2am and everybody’s looking at each other with a wee bit of anger. Everyone’s tired obviously. Mugs of coffee are scattered all over the table. Thus far the negotiations have centred on two fronts; on one side there is a conglomerate of state parties who do not want to push through the agreements and another struggling to do the complete opposite.

One of the issues that have caused quite some uproar is the position of the U.S, yes Obama’s U.S and New Zealand concerning accounting. Basically they have refused to advance the accounting rules, hence stalled the negotiations concerning common accounting. It is like throwing the spanner in the works. Essentially, common accounting is crucial in terms of quantifying emission reduction[1].

The commitment problem!!

Annex 1 countries are still not coming out clearly and transparently concerning their targets. Common accounting rules are important in assessing progress towards the goals set out in addition to evaluating the effort that is put in realizing this ambition. These rules are crucial in strengthening the international carbon markets. The lack of commitment therefore shown by some of the Annex 1 countries jeopardizes the robustness of the carbon markets mechanism. The countries which are hindering the development of the common accounting rules make it very difficult to realize the targets that have been set, of less than 2 degree warming and a significant reduction in emissions. This also has an effect on the issue of surpluses. As alluded to in our earlier brief, the issue of surpluses is crucial and sensitive. In spilling the surpluses to the second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol, countries would not have to account much for their emissions since the shift will focus in buying emission permits. That is an eventuality we do not want to even consider.

Tiny Bites…

Essentially the U.S and New Zealand wanted to maintain the status quo by not wanting to further enhance the common accounting rules.

South Africa took a different view from the two “fossil giants” preferring the advancement of the rules to enhance transparency and accountability.

Canada have not expressed a favourable position regarding finance and are increasingly being recognized as “COP 18 villains” together with Russia, Ukraine, Poland New Zealand among a few others.

Norway have been making massive steps towards contribution towards efforts to reduce emissions, however, it has been found that they have not reduced their emissions because extraction and consumption of oil and gas has increased hence they have been put to task about it.


The up-shot is that there is a desire and urgency to enhance a 2nd commitment period with regard to the Kyoto Protocol. However, there are some Parties which are less than willing to see this through. They are less than transparent when it comes to commitment to a 2nd post Kyoto period.

Land grabs in Ethiopia leave tribes hungry on World Food Day

By Survival International:

Lower Omo boy. Courtesy Survival International

Violent land grabs in Ethiopia’s Lower Omo Valley are displacing tribes and preventing them from cultivating their land, leaving thousands of people hungry and ‘waiting to die’.

As the world prepares to raise awareness of the issues behind poverty and hunger on October 16 (World Food Day), Ethiopia continues to jeopardize the food security and livelihoods of 200,000 of its self-sufficient tribal people.

Tribes such as the Suri, Mursi, Bodi and Kwegu are being violently evicted from their villages as Ethiopia’s government pursues its lucrative plantations project in the Valley.

Depriving tribes of their most valuable agricultural and grazing land, security forces are being used brutally to clear the area to make way for vast cotton, palm oil and sugar cane fields.

Cattle are being confiscated, food stores destroyed, and communities ordered to abandon their homes and move into designated resettlement areas.

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